Aristotle and all that 
Thursday, December 31, 2009, 04:26 PM - Strategy, People, Opinion & Humour
I have been away from my desk quite a lot recently cavorting around the motorways of England, racking up the miles on my poor hard-worked steed, but now I have a few minutes to sit down and pass on an interesting observation....
Just a momentary tangent before we head into the main meat, so to speak, there is another blog post that I have been meaning to write about Broadband Britain, Cloud Computing, the Innovators Dilemma, passing by the new statistic that the number of of old people in the UK now exceeds the number of young, and arriving finally at some as yet unthought pithy comment about Silver [read, Grey] Surfers. However, it is really just an excuse to create a comic juxtaposition alluding to the alleged practice of North American ethnic peoples (no longer Eskimo) to abandon their old folk on ice floes, whereas I have observed over the long miles I have travelled in the last few months that we British seem to abandon them at Cherwell Valley Services on the M40...so lets move on

Anyway, my recent revelation is related to this framework below plucked from the world of transformation consulting and change management as relayed to me some years ago by one of my erstwhile consulting chums.  The blobs relate to managing communication with people during significant changes on three dimensions: Rational, Political and Emotional.


RPE framework
The 'sweet spot' is in the centre when all communications are most compelling as they appeal to all these three.

Coincidentally, whilst  trying to be a useful parent and reviewing a Classics essay, I prodded Google about some topic to draw back the veil of my ignorance on such topics and it popped up with Aristotle's three modes of persuasion
  • ήθος - Ethos
  • λόγος - Logos
  • πάθος - Pathos
Thus, in seasonal form...


Aristotle's modes of persuasion - seasonal style

Whilst equating Ethos to the Political dimension somewhat turns my stomach when I think of the more venal and self-aggrandising aspects of the political world, the three blobs of the R...P...E model are a pretty good match for what Aristotle laid down.

So there you go....


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Beware of BS Benchmarks & Krap KPIs 
Monday, July 20, 2009, 09:03 PM - Technology in Business, Value, Opinion & Humour
Recently our esteemed Green Knight, Sir Jonathan Porritt was attributed with saying  "Overweight people are 'damaging the planet'".  Of course it turns out that he said something like this in about 2007, in fact building on a comment by the then Secretary of State for Health, Alan Johnson.  But somebody else unearthed it again for some typically twisted reason - nothing can be more topical than mixing global warming with a bit of "fatty slapping".

The hypothesis behind the hype is that fat people use more resources because they eat more food, but why not then include teenage boys (unfillable, as empty fridges around the country can testify), people with very high metabolic rate, and other some such big eaters.  Ah, well, the logic goes that fat people also drive everywhere and so contribute more CO2 than thin people who, of course, walk or cycle everywhere.   Well, maybe it applies in towns, but it is certainly not true in the countryside, so drawing a different intersection in the Venn diagram I am sketching out here in hyperspace, maybe the headline should have read "Teenage boys and country people with very high metabolic rates are 'damaging the planet''" - not quite so catchy, or right-on, eh?

But, of course, there is a secondary thesis which is that obese people can be "cured", especially if they all got out of their cars, walked and cycled, and stopped scarfing all the pies, whence their weight would magically drop away and they would join all the normal people in the happy mean.

 When you look at whole populations analytically then of course you usually see some sort of distribution (Normal or otherwise) of whatever factor (weight, in this case) that you might be measuring.   So the theory is that by thinning down the fatties, the shape of the distribution will be changed. However, there are flies in this particular ointment, and if you look around you can find suggestions that obesity is actually a structural feature of a/the/any human population, that everybody has got fatter and that you need to treat the population as a whole, not just focus on the upper tail.

All in all, an example of woolly loose thinking gussying up to a political agenda.

BMI  is one of the weapons in the "fatty slapping" armoury, a metric with some very well documented short-comings, yet standard (mis-)guidance would label people like Lawrence Dilaglio, Jonah Lomu & Mel Gibson as over-weight or obese.  Whilst BMI might have some trivial diagnostic uses, some lard-brained, fat-heads try to use it as a decision-making metric, vide 'Too fat' to donate bone marrow - the 18-stone 5'10" sports teacher with a technical BMI of 36.1 who was ejected from the National Bone Marrow Register.  To make a proper health assessment, you need to have a more detailed look at structural features, like waist size, percentage of body fat and so on, before pronouncing.
Just pausing a moment to dissect BMI further, it has units of kg/m2 which is not unlike the metric used to define paper thickness.  
Many organisations these days used 80gsm printer paper which is more environmentally friendly than the more sumptuous 100 paper of oldAnd even less rich feeling than the 120gsm paper that Tier 1 consultants use to create a table-thumping report - the dollars are in the loudness of the thump.  
As Marshall McLuhan told us, the medium is indeed the message, thickness = quality, and just feel that silky china clay high white finish. Oooohhh...
Sorry, started to get rather indented there, must coach self, control tangents...

 So a person who has a BMI of, say, yeah, like 25, is like a piece of 25000gsm paper, no really...equally a piece of A4 paper might have a BMI of about 0.08...

BMI is a very poor benchmark comparator


Thus BMI is a prime example of a benchmark ratio or KPI that is NOT a good basis for making decisions, as it fails to take account of significant structural factors.

This parable provides an important lesson for practitioners in the world of Information Technology Economics, where many a ratio is measured and analysed by pundits including Gartner et al, a classic being "IT Costs as percentage of Revenue", one of their IT Key Metrics.

It is defined quite simply as:


If you dig into the typical drivers of the top and bottom parts of this formula as below, say,

MicroEconomic Drivers - Typical Examples
IT Costs Revenue
  • Business configuration, e.g., Channel/Distribution infrastructure
  • Organisation structure (e.g., headcount)
  • IT Governance & Policies (e.g., Group standardisation)
  • IS architecture and legacy (complexity)
  • IT Service definitions and service levels
  • Development methods & productivity
  • Sourcing/procurement strategy & execution
  • Supplier market diversity
  • Market Structure
  • Competitive environment
  • Market share
  • Product design
  • Consumer behaviour
  • Sales & Marketing performance
  • Customer Service (retention)

then you might surmise that it is quite possible that the Revenue numerator has significant elements that are certainly outside the direct control of the IT organisation, and indeed outside the control of the company, whereas the IT Costs are defined largely by the structure of the organisation, its distribution channels, and internal policies and practices.  The top line is also, I conjecture, more volatile than the denominator, and being mostly outside the control of the IT so a very unfair stick to beat the IT donkey with.  So in qualitative logical terms this metric is certainly appears to be a very poor 'apples and oranges' comparator.

If you stretch the analysis further, you can ask the question "what does it mean?"  Is the ratio intended to show the importance of IT? or IT leverage/gearing (bang for the buck)?

Well, if it is some level of importance we are trying to assess, then we should analyse the relationship between this benchmark ratio and true measures of business value, such as, Operating Margin.  Looking across a range of industries the curve looks like this:

IT Cost Revenue ratio does not correlate to Operating Margin, a primary measure of business vfalue

OK, is is a deliberately silly chart, just to make the point that this is clearly a wobbly relationship.
If you do a linear regression analysis of the relationship between Operating Margin% and the IT Cost/Revenue ratio and a sibling ratio "IT Cost as a %age of Total Operating Costs" (or "Systems Intensity" to its friends), then you get these results for R2

R2

IT Costs as %age of Revenue vs Operating Margin%

0.175

IT Costs as %age of Op. Costs vs Operating Margin%

0.330


What this shows is that there is no particularly significant linear relationship between these two key metrics and Operating Margin, so quantitatively, the ratios do not really tell you anything about how IT costs/investment drive overall business performance at all.  

Even within an industry ratio comparisons are fairly meaningless.  For example, in the past UK Banks had an average Systems Intensity around 20%.  If you were to calculate the Systems Intensity for Egg, the Internet bank, at its height, you would come out with a number ranging from about 17% to 25% depending on how you treat the IT cost component of outsourced product processing and some other structural factors.  And I do recall having a conversation with one Investment Bank CIO who declared, "Yes, of course, we do spend 20% of our operating costs on IT, it's how we set the budget!"

The whole averaging process loses information too.  Look at the four distributions below, they all have the same mean (i.e., average) but are wildly different in shape. 

Distrubutions of very different shape can all have the same mean value

 Without further detail on their parameters than just the mean value of the curves,  you cannot make a sensible comparison at all.

So all these ratios give is some rather weak macro illumination of the differing levels of IT spending between industries, like saying to a Bank "Did you know that, on average, Banks spend 7.3 times more on IT than Energy companies" to which the appropriate response is "YEAH, SO WHAT?"...

...Oh, and maybe, some vague diagnostic indication that there may (or may not) be something worth looking at with a more detailed structural review.  So, why not just go straight there, and dig out the real gold!

And so the morals of this story, O, Best Beloved,  are that just because you can divide two numbers, it doesn't mean that you should, and be prepared to dig into the detail to truly understand how cost and performance could be improved.

Just so.
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Just Words 
Thursday, May 28, 2009, 02:00 AM - Opinion & Humour
So it has been a torrid couple of weeks for MPs outed having been caught with their hands in the cookie jar.   Schadenfreude, Epicaricacy, aighear millteach and their ilk are good words to roll around the tongue, and savour whilst we lob cabbages and rotten tomatoes at those in the pillory: all the more unattractive being that their "misfortune" was brought about by their own actions and a display of lower moral standards than  is clearly desirable in our political representatives.
Auto-Epicaricacy: a term I just made up, applying some word logic, would mean taking pleasure in your own misfortune. Definitely an unhealthy and paradoxical mental state, but I suppose optimistic, in that every cloud has a silver lining...

I was particularly fascinated and driven to ask "how does that work, then?"  by the declaration of one misadventurer that "Of course I feel that my reputation is tarnished, but my integrity is intact".
Integrity: the unimpaired state of anything : uprightness : honesty : purity - Chambers 20C 

What logic system do you have to apply, what set of axioms must one have, how must one deconstruct common sense to be able to make this statement?  For a start, you would have to look at redefining some core words: unimpaired, anything, upright, honest, pure - take your pick.

Words are a key part of a consultant's stock-in-trade, and pictures too.   One of my favourites satirical sites, now sadly defunct, was SatireWire which ran a series of bizarre and entertaining statistical charts like this...

Madrigals By Freshness



... a hearty lampoon of opaque and confusing "Management by Cartoon" Powerpoint presentations (one step up, though, from "Management by In-flight Magazine" which is significantly more dangerous).

And of course every industry has its buzz-words and jargon, which can be useful short-hand for many forms of communication, but often quite poisonous when they leak into other places.  
Note the use of the word "key" in the preceding paragraph - a consultant-y sort of word if ever there was one, it means important, significant, stands out from the crowd.  Non-key things are not interesting...now go back and carry on reading here 

The recent attempt by the Local Government Association to proscribe some logofluvial jargon-words was a valiant attempt to stop etymological pollution in Local Government communication with the rest of us.  I am certainly a fan of Plain English, and keeping things short and sweet with some sharp Anglo-Saxon monosyllables replacing  loquacious logorrheic verbal peregrinations, but equally a devotee of precision and conciseness which some longer words can bring to a sentence, by conceptual elision, perhaps.  

So I was interested to see some words on the list that I have used myself and as have many of my colleagues.  These are words from the consulting domain that do have proper surgically precise and correct meanings in the right hands, but indeed deadly in the wrong.  Other words on the list would be posionous in any context:
  • "Baseline" is a word I know well that has meaning both in project planning and also in procurement - in both areas being the datum from which you measure some sort of progress or achievement.
  • "Predictors of Beaconicity", however,  is never going to win any prizes for clarity....[there are 1550 hits on Google for this phrase, but I am overwhelmed by disinterest and will not clutter my brain with vacuous garbology]
The list is also very good material for Buzz-word Bingo...

And talking of words and in an interesting juxtaposition of neurons firing, I noticed that the BBC were having a Poetry Season.  Being a self-professed iconoclast and fact-based sort of person, I have a completely tin-ear for poetry which is just a form of "talking funny" (in an unfunny way, unlike puns).  

So to finish, I have constructed a Boston grid attempting to make some sense and classify some of the odder behaviours of my fellow human, viz....

"Talking Funny"
  • Poets
  • Committee meetings
  • Consultants (some)
  • Morris Dancers
  • Mickey Mouse
  • Street Mimes
  • Opera Singers
  • Michael Jackson
  • Klingons
Normal
  • Most people
  • Cycle couriers
  • Bee-keepers
  • Sports-people (most)
  • Customer service agents in uniform
  • Builders
Normal "Dressing Funny"

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Phosphenes & Palimpsests... 
Monday, April 20, 2009, 10:27 PM - Technology in Business, People, Opinion & Humour
About a year ago, I went though one of those few moments when I thought my normal powers of memory had somehow deserted me. It was not really anything important I couldn't remember, just the word that describes the the lights you see when you squeeze your eyes tight shut. Like this...

So not very significant in the scheme of things: not one of the words I actually use very often in conversation or in Powerpoint presentations. Just annoying, because the word was just lurking on the edge of my perception, out of reach. But something that you can get a bit obsessed about when information normally falls to hand or mind quickly...

So I Googled and Wiki'd and all those searching jobs that normally count as work, and kept finding Tom, Nicole and Stanley and their film, and other flotsam and jetsam on the endless waves of Web surf.

But, eventually, I created a mega-whiz, sharp-as-a-scalpel, spot-on search string that gave me that Eureka moment...Ding!

The word I was looking for was "Phosphene"

Mind you the Eureka moment was over quickly, as I came to that odd feeling that I had never known the word at all so how could I have semi-forgotten or demi-remembered it? But let us not confuse the story with such technical plot twists and devices.

Palimpsest is another word a bit like Phosphene, but in reverse, I know what the letters say, but the meaning slips my mind (a reused bit of parchment, in fact). It is however a word that I have read many times but never ever had the need to write down - until today. It is definitely a clever Stephen Fry sort of a word, or maybe a Will Self word

I wrote "normal powers of memory" at the top of this piece, though we Jungian Is "enjoy" the physical aspects of memory that are imposed by our brain chemitstry, being the dominant long acetylcholine pathway, compared the the short dopamine pathway of Es out there.

If you looked inside my head, it might look something like this...

...but brighter and probably in colour.

So I worked out many years ago that I should not waste my time remembering stuff, when a notebook works much better.

And so on into the Wonderful World of the Web, I have always found it useful to clip bits out and paste them into my digital scrapbook for longevity and to act as my long-term cyber memory. I gave up on browser Favourites early, as they quickly became useless signposts to where information was no more.

In my Adobe period, I printed bits of the Web to PDF files and stored them in a byzantine filing structure. But, eventually I settled on Onfolio and paid some brass for a real product...and then Microsoft bought it and gave me back my money because they were giving it away free in the Windows Live toolbar...then to become a zombie, twilighting product. The death knell was when they switched off the licensing servers last September.
RIP, Onfolio, you served me well

So I had to indulge in one of those distress-driven searches to find a new digital brain. I tried Ultra-Recall which can import Onfolio collections, but has the user experience of a broken lift. I tried TopicScape but that felt like I was in Castle Wolfenstein or Jurassic Park (the " 'I know this, it's UNIX' whilst looking at a mad graphical computerscape " moment), and a host of other paraphernalia and arcana.

So I have ended up with MacroPool's Web Research, which feels a bit like Onfolio...but German...so hopefully it will be most efficient. We'll see...
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Bedtime? Says Who? 
Saturday, March 14, 2009, 03:16 AM - People, News, Paranoia & Mad World, Timeout
Last week seemed to revolve around cars and driving, starting the week with long distance trips (to Canterbury and Salisbury), then fixing broken cars, a damaged engine undertray and nixed horns from an unwarranted attack by a particularly vicious piece of traffic calming, plus a petrol leak, culminating in thrashing my old M5 around Cadwell Park on a track day on Friday (a good way to end the week!).  
Cadwell Park is mostly associated with bikers, but is also quite entertaining in a car, especially a tail-happy BMW - when I first enquired about track day insurance a while ago, the bod on the phone gave me a quote, and then when I said it was Cadwell, they said, ah, and added another 50%!

Here is the old girl in her war paint...

Old girl in her warpaint after a day at Cadwell Park

...none the worse for our trip into the bushes in the snow a few weeks ago.

In a mad moment of preparation before one of the long drives, we threw out the rubbish bag from the back of the car.  I later got a text from home saying that we had just managed to recycle 28 empty Red Bull cans: something of a record even for me.

Quite coincidentally, I was idly running my eye over two piles of books on the table in my study, all in the process of being read or passing through to the bookshelves...

Piles of books...

On the right is a workaday pile of business books that show some current industry themes (Semantic Web, Information Security, Agile IT Organisations..).  The left-hand pile, however, reveals my recent predeliction for texts de-bunking mumbo-jumbo in all its irrational varieties, and I wonder if, maybe, this signals the start of the slippery slope to becoming Grumpy?
OK, Step forward, one and all, to tell me I'm already there...

Anyway, connecting Red Bull with grumpiness in any form, whether caused by lack of sleep, or too much blood in my caffeine stream, I was particularly exercised last week by an article in the paper - so, much so that I tore it out and carried it in my wallet, waving it at people, and saying "Says Who?".

I have it here now and I am waving it at the screen in an agitated way.  It is entitled "Night-owl children ruin body clocks" from the Sunday Times, and the first sentence reads "Children who are allowed to stay up past their bedtime watching television or playing on a computer are at risk of late-night sleeplessness for the rest of their lives".  To me this is grade A bunkum, as despite the strictest bed-times enforced by my parents, a thin gruel of educational TV and definitely no computer games (not invented), today I inhabit a nether-world of late nights, living in a time zone that is somewhere about GMT - 2 ("Mid-Atlantic" according to Windows clock) or GMT - 3  ("Montevideo/Buenos Aires/Georgetown/Greenland").
I recall a moment during an interview many years ago with PWC Management Consulting, walking around the offices taking in the atmosphere. My escort said "We have hot-desking here, and starting time is 9-30am" (how civilised, I thought), "but if you don't get in by 7am then you don't get a desk" (ho ho, st&ff that for a game of soldiers, I thought)

Who are these mysterious people, "they" who dictate when we should sleep and wake? Who says what bedtime is and should be?  In a world of the Internet, Digital TV and 24hour opening at Tesco who needs to have a set bedtime?  Says Who?  Nanny? Granny? the NHS? [see footnote]

Alvin Toffler put his finger on this point in "Future Shock" many years ago, when he commented on the transition from cock-crow, to factory whistle and school bell - training us all to live, work and sleep to a rhythm of coordinated factory production.  Be a good little robot, and Thank Ford for the Brave New World. (OK, mixed literary allusions there, I know)

Well, ranting aside, I was pleased to see later in the week, another article in the same domain, but this one said  Teenagers improve grades with a lie-in.....    Unlike Matter and anti-Matter which annihilate themselves in a E=MC2 sort of way when they get mixed together, News and anti-News stories just sort of disappear with a slight "moo" and a whiff of fish.

And so to bed...


[footnote: 
the worrying aspect is that the article quotes the sort of statistics about insomnia, sleep-walking and sleep-related breathing problems that some intellectually challenged politician might seize on to force us all to go to bed at 8pm...for our own good]
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