I recently had to to go to Kent at short notice, and
since
I was heading into relatively unknown territory on a long journey, I
zero'd
my satnav trip details, a rare event.
When I got home, I flipped to the trip detail screen and was tickled to see this trip record shown below...
The distance looks right, but behold, my Max Speed was apparently 242 mph - was I driving a Bugatti Veyron (top speed 258 mph)? - I think not!
This makes you think about how useful is GPS data as the foundation of a national road pricing system - the answer is probably in chocolate teapot territory!
Many people think that a satellite based road pricing system would work roughly like this...
...with the satellites somehow detecting the position of your car and then transmitting the data to the Big Computer that adds up the price of the the roads you have been sitting on, and then issuing a bill.
But of course the satellites don't detect the position of the car at all, it is the Black Box in the car that does all the work, and so a GPS-satellite based road pricing system would really work something like this....
...with the car working out where it thinks it is, and then (somehow, by mobile phone, maybe) sending the data to the Big Computer that...well, you get the picture, don't you...
If such a system were built, then once people twig the way things work, the little Black Boxes will be wearing tin-foil hats - to block the incoming satellite signal, and then to stop the mobile phone signal going out; result: No road travel data = no payment.
So the Power-That-Be would have design some sort of method of enforcement. What better way than using the Automatic Number Plate Recognition (ANPR) cameras that are sprouting all over the place.
All you need to do is cross-relate the journey data received from the in-car black boxes with the location of sightings according to the cameras. The system would look something like this...
Thinking a bit harder than maybe my satnav did, then you can imagine many points of error:
Multiplying up the error probabilities in this ordure-filled pipeline, and you will get a success probability in the mid-seventies percent. Not good...
My trip would have earned me about 18-points on my licence, a big fine, a 5-year ban, and probably 6 months in chokey for apparently travelling at 182 mph faster than the National Speed limit.
So if/when we end up with a GPS-powered road pricing system, expect the worst!
When I got home, I flipped to the trip detail screen and was tickled to see this trip record shown below...
The distance looks right, but behold, my Max Speed was apparently 242 mph - was I driving a Bugatti Veyron (top speed 258 mph)? - I think not!
This makes you think about how useful is GPS data as the foundation of a national road pricing system - the answer is probably in chocolate teapot territory!
Many people think that a satellite based road pricing system would work roughly like this...
...with the satellites somehow detecting the position of your car and then transmitting the data to the Big Computer that adds up the price of the the roads you have been sitting on, and then issuing a bill.
But of course the satellites don't detect the position of the car at all, it is the Black Box in the car that does all the work, and so a GPS-satellite based road pricing system would really work something like this....
...with the car working out where it thinks it is, and then (somehow, by mobile phone, maybe) sending the data to the Big Computer that...well, you get the picture, don't you...
If such a system were built, then once people twig the way things work, the little Black Boxes will be wearing tin-foil hats - to block the incoming satellite signal, and then to stop the mobile phone signal going out; result: No road travel data = no payment.
So the Power-That-Be would have design some sort of method of enforcement. What better way than using the Automatic Number Plate Recognition (ANPR) cameras that are sprouting all over the place.
All you need to do is cross-relate the journey data received from the in-car black boxes with the location of sightings according to the cameras. The system would look something like this...
Thinking a bit harder than maybe my satnav did, then you can imagine many points of error:
- confused satnav systems
- lost distances travelled in tunnels, city canyons, and inside little tin foil hats
- black box failures, including maybe "failures" induced by sharp, stabbling screwdrivers
- failed/partial uploads of trip records
- misrecognised number plates
- cars and drivers missing from the database
- and more...
Multiplying up the error probabilities in this ordure-filled pipeline, and you will get a success probability in the mid-seventies percent. Not good...
I have previously mentioned the risk profile of Government IT projects so I won't bang that particular drum again here, but you can always look here to remind yourself...
My trip would have earned me about 18-points on my licence, a big fine, a 5-year ban, and probably 6 months in chokey for apparently travelling at 182 mph faster than the National Speed limit.
So if/when we end up with a GPS-powered road pricing system, expect the worst!
Footnote: the charming and naively executed diagrams in this post where brought to you courtesy of a DigiScribble pen. It calls itself " The Mobile Digital Note-Taker", but using it underlined for me the fatal flaw of all write-only devices...you can't see what it thinks you wrote until you upload - too late, way too late
add comment
| 0 trackbacks
| permalink
| related link
| 
( 3 / 76 )
The world of Information Technology overflows with its arcane jargon and acronyms, but it is by no means, the sole offender of creating inpenetrable and mysterious language.
I was recently driving along and saw this displayed on the dot-matrix on the back of a bus...
...and whilst admiring the rendition of the letters on the display and pondering dot densities and the like, I then spent precious minutes attempting to work out what it was actually trying to say, and where was the bus going?
There is a lot of talk about reducing street clutter at one moment, and then, again, increasing confusion within the driver's mind to make them slow down
but this new FLA certainly did the latter, and none of the former for me!
As I overtook and looked in my mirror, Eureka, the bus was heading for the depot, and proudly displaying "Sorry, Not In Service" on the long display at the front.
Yes, the transport types have invented a new word-thing and foisted on us unsuspecting general public who really didn't need it and shouldn't be spending our time working out what it means. This particular word-thing should really only be used amongst consenting transport types and anoraks, and I don't really mind if the bus people use it as a verb,
just as long as they don't do it in front of the children.
In my humble opinion, this display below would have worked better, and would probably have meant more to a large part of the world that uses the Roman alphabet...
I was recently driving along and saw this displayed on the dot-matrix on the back of a bus...
...and whilst admiring the rendition of the letters on the display and pondering dot densities and the like, I then spent precious minutes attempting to work out what it was actually trying to say, and where was the bus going?
There is a lot of talk about reducing street clutter at one moment, and then, again, increasing confusion within the driver's mind to make them slow down
coincidentally, Hans Monderman , the proponent of "Shared Space", died earlier this year, but that is another tangent
but this new FLA certainly did the latter, and none of the former for me!
As I overtook and looked in my mirror, Eureka, the bus was heading for the depot, and proudly displaying "Sorry, Not In Service" on the long display at the front.
Yes, the transport types have invented a new word-thing and foisted on us unsuspecting general public who really didn't need it and shouldn't be spending our time working out what it means. This particular word-thing should really only be used amongst consenting transport types and anoraks, and I don't really mind if the bus people use it as a verb,
"OK, guys, we'll SNIS this bus and bring on the relief"
just as long as they don't do it in front of the children.
In my humble opinion, this display below would have worked better, and would probably have meant more to a large part of the world that uses the Roman alphabet...
I stayed in an bizarre hotel in Kensington last week and was rather struck by the immense length of the central corridor, and odd green-ness of the lights, creating an institutional, Soviet/Stalinist feel to the place, and the sense that you could walk and walk and never find your room...
...which brings me, of course, to carpets of which this place had many, many hectares.
Carpet stores have always seemed to me to be one of the last hangouts of stone-age man, well, stone-age marketing anyway.
Apart of the never-ending sales, and boring adverts, they seem to harbour troglodytes who have not worked out that it might just be better to treat their customers with a little bit of intelligence. The most insulting manifestation of this is the latest wheeze, the "cut, and then cut some more" sale pricing.
Carpetright have a great deal advertised at the moment at the local store...
50% and then 20% more is, of course, supposed to make us think they are cutting prices by 70%, but, no, by a clever trick of arithmetic it is only 60% (the 20% only applies to something already cut in half).
"Carpet Stupidity" more like...
...which brings me, of course, to carpets of which this place had many, many hectares.
Carpet stores have always seemed to me to be one of the last hangouts of stone-age man, well, stone-age marketing anyway.
Apart of the never-ending sales, and boring adverts, they seem to harbour troglodytes who have not worked out that it might just be better to treat their customers with a little bit of intelligence. The most insulting manifestation of this is the latest wheeze, the "cut, and then cut some more" sale pricing.
Carpetright have a great deal advertised at the moment at the local store...
An interesting aside is that if you go to the Carpetright website and right-click your mouse, instead of the normal menu, you get a big Copyright notice, not obvious what they have to protect so assidiously
50% and then 20% more is, of course, supposed to make us think they are cutting prices by 70%, but, no, by a clever trick of arithmetic it is only 60% (the 20% only applies to something already cut in half).
"Carpet Stupidity" more like...
Over the weekend, I was very nearly forced to hand out an "Unhappy
Voucher" after a foray into Mobile madness.
Not quite in Norse saga territory, but after getting my daughter's mobile phone replaced three times (cracked keys, random turning-off, etc., etc..), I finally gave in, consigned the not so old phone to Silicon Heaven, bought a new model on some cute subsidised deal, put the SIM in the Box of Many Identities, and handed over the new toy.
So imagine my surprise, when, a week later, I was ambushed whilst staggering to the kettle for the first coffee of the day: "My phone's dead, the display has gone"..... I said "Hnnh"
So there I was, standing in the shop, bristling..........it had all kicked off after the Sales Slug had rejected my reasonable replacement request, and I asked to see the Manager, and Dismal turned up...
Yesssss!
Humanity - 1, Forces of Customer Service Evil - Nil
Not quite in Norse saga territory, but after getting my daughter's mobile phone replaced three times (cracked keys, random turning-off, etc., etc..), I finally gave in, consigned the not so old phone to Silicon Heaven, bought a new model on some cute subsidised deal, put the SIM in the Box of Many Identities, and handed over the new toy.
So imagine my surprise, when, a week later, I was ambushed whilst staggering to the kettle for the first coffee of the day: "My phone's dead, the display has gone"..... I said "Hnnh"
So there I was, standing in the shop, bristling..........it had all kicked off after the Sales Slug had rejected my reasonable replacement request, and I asked to see the Manager, and Dismal turned up...
Me: ....phone broken.....screen blank......Slug......packaging......not necessary.....in the bin. Please could you replace it for me?
Dismal: Sorry, we can't replace the phone without all the original packaging
Me: ...gone in the bin ...
Dismal: Well we can't replace the phone without the original packaging
Me: Yes, you can
Dismal: No we can't
Me: Yes you can
..
Dismal: We could go on like this all day. You're not listening to me
Me: Yes, I am, I just think you're wrong
Dismal: Are you calling me a liar? - Great customer service, this, I thought
Me: No, just mistaken
(Dismal taps on keyboard)
Dismal: I've typed here - advised customer of policy, blah, blah, .no packaging, need to order a handset and battery - OK so they can replace the phone without the packaging, but he's going to make me wait a long time
(Tapping, more tapping, grunt, much more tapping, visit to the stockroom, more tapping, another visit to the stockroom - comes back with new phone in box looking unhappy)
Dismal: We haven't any handsets and batteries in stock, so I will have to take a new phone out of its box and send back the old one...
Yesssss!
Humanity - 1, Forces of Customer Service Evil - Nil
In an idle moment in a place I cannot recall, but may have
been the local takeaway, I read the Daily Express, an unusual
event. And I read an article entitled "CANCER
RISK OF JUST TWO GLASSES OF WINE A DAY" which
demonstrated exactly why not the read the Daily Express if you wish to
retain your sanity.
This is how the Express sensitively rendered the story...
The particular issue raised by this non-news story has been rolling around the back of my brain for a while, however the creative forces have been battling with perfectionist tendencies, fending off a full research project on the many different life risks, probabilities thereof, and the mechanisms of converting annual probabilities into life-time ones, and all manner of analytical delights.
So to break the log-jam (and get a life in between), I have crayoned the issue, rather than the full Powerpoint...
You can find all sorts of stats around the web about the probability of different life risks if you look - here and here, for example, and tease out interesting, contrarian nuggets. Such as, drowning is much more likely than a fatal dog attack, yet there are many strait-jacketing laws on dangerous dogs, but no UK inland rescue force to save people who fall in the water, which paradox seems to defy common-sense.
The issue in the case of the Australian report is that the risk that is being increased by 75% is diddly-squat to start with, and (Diddly-Squat * 1.75) = Sweet FA (in the Maths of Pointless Numbers). It is undoubtedly bad if it actually happens, but the probability is not something you can, or should, let dictate your life.
I suppose headlines like "Medicos issue report about irrelevant statistical findings that don't matter" don't sell papers, so there must be people who enjoy a little frisson of fear, panic and anxiety over their breakfast corn flakes, and prepared to read the Express to get it....
This is how the Express sensitively rendered the story...
The particular issue raised by this non-news story has been rolling around the back of my brain for a while, however the creative forces have been battling with perfectionist tendencies, fending off a full research project on the many different life risks, probabilities thereof, and the mechanisms of converting annual probabilities into life-time ones, and all manner of analytical delights.
So to break the log-jam (and get a life in between), I have crayoned the issue, rather than the full Powerpoint...
You can find all sorts of stats around the web about the probability of different life risks if you look - here and here, for example, and tease out interesting, contrarian nuggets. Such as, drowning is much more likely than a fatal dog attack, yet there are many strait-jacketing laws on dangerous dogs, but no UK inland rescue force to save people who fall in the water, which paradox seems to defy common-sense.
The issue in the case of the Australian report is that the risk that is being increased by 75% is diddly-squat to start with, and (Diddly-Squat * 1.75) = Sweet FA (in the Maths of Pointless Numbers). It is undoubtedly bad if it actually happens, but the probability is not something you can, or should, let dictate your life.
I suppose headlines like "Medicos issue report about irrelevant statistical findings that don't matter" don't sell papers, so there must be people who enjoy a little frisson of fear, panic and anxiety over their breakfast corn flakes, and prepared to read the Express to get it....
Next
Avatar
