Last week seemed to revolve around cars and driving, starting the week
with long distance trips (to Canterbury and Salisbury), then
fixing broken cars, a damaged engine undertray and nixed horns
from an unwarranted attack by a particularly vicious piece of traffic
calming, plus a petrol leak, culminating in thrashing my old M5 around
Cadwell Park on a track day on Friday (a good way to
end the week!).
Here is the old girl in her war paint...
...none the worse for our trip into the bushes in the snow a few weeks ago.
In a mad moment of preparation before one of the long drives, we threw out the rubbish bag from the back of the car. I later got a text from home saying that we had just managed to recycle 28 empty Red Bull cans: something of a record even for me.
Quite coincidentally, I was idly running my eye over two piles of books on the table in my study, all in the process of being read or passing through to the bookshelves...
On the right is a workaday pile of business books that show some current industry themes (Semantic Web, Information Security, Agile IT Organisations..). The left-hand pile, however, reveals my recent predeliction for texts de-bunking mumbo-jumbo in all its irrational varieties, and I wonder if, maybe, this signals the start of the slippery slope to becoming Grumpy?
Anyway, connecting Red Bull with grumpiness in any form, whether caused by lack of sleep, or too much blood in my caffeine stream, I was particularly exercised last week by an article in the paper - so, much so that I tore it out and carried it in my wallet, waving it at people, and saying "Says Who?".
I have it here now and I am waving it at the screen in an agitated way. It is entitled "Night-owl children ruin body clocks" from the Sunday Times, and the first sentence reads "Children who are allowed to stay up past their bedtime watching television or playing on a computer are at risk of late-night sleeplessness for the rest of their lives". To me this is grade A bunkum, as despite the strictest bed-times enforced by my parents, a thin gruel of educational TV and definitely no computer games (not invented), today I inhabit a nether-world of late nights, living in a time zone that is somewhere about GMT - 2 ("Mid-Atlantic" according to Windows clock) or GMT - 3 ("Montevideo/Buenos Aires/Georgetown/Greenland").
Who are these mysterious people, "they" who dictate when we should sleep and wake? Who says what bedtime is and should be? In a world of the Internet, Digital TV and 24hour opening at Tesco who needs to have a set bedtime? Says Who? Nanny? Granny? the NHS? [see footnote]
Alvin Toffler put his finger on this point in "Future Shock" many years ago, when he commented on the transition from cock-crow, to factory whistle and school bell - training us all to live, work and sleep to a rhythm of coordinated factory production. Be a good little robot, and Thank Ford for the Brave New World. (OK, mixed literary allusions there, I know)
Well, ranting aside, I was pleased to see later in the week, another article in the same domain, but this one said Teenagers improve grades with a lie-in..... Unlike Matter and anti-Matter which annihilate themselves in a E=MC2 sort of way when they get mixed together, News and anti-News stories just sort of disappear with a slight "moo" and a whiff of fish.
And so to bed...
[footnote: the worrying aspect is that the article quotes the sort of statistics about insomnia, sleep-walking and sleep-related breathing problems that some intellectually challenged politician might seize on to force us all to go to bed at 8pm...for our own good]
Cadwell Park is mostly associated with bikers, but is also quite entertaining in a car, especially a tail-happy BMW - when I first enquired about track day insurance a while ago, the bod on the phone gave me a quote, and then when I said it was Cadwell, they said, ah, and added another 50%!
Here is the old girl in her war paint...
...none the worse for our trip into the bushes in the snow a few weeks ago.
In a mad moment of preparation before one of the long drives, we threw out the rubbish bag from the back of the car. I later got a text from home saying that we had just managed to recycle 28 empty Red Bull cans: something of a record even for me.
Quite coincidentally, I was idly running my eye over two piles of books on the table in my study, all in the process of being read or passing through to the bookshelves...
On the right is a workaday pile of business books that show some current industry themes (Semantic Web, Information Security, Agile IT Organisations..). The left-hand pile, however, reveals my recent predeliction for texts de-bunking mumbo-jumbo in all its irrational varieties, and I wonder if, maybe, this signals the start of the slippery slope to becoming Grumpy?
OK, Step forward, one and all, to tell me I'm already there...
Anyway, connecting Red Bull with grumpiness in any form, whether caused by lack of sleep, or too much blood in my caffeine stream, I was particularly exercised last week by an article in the paper - so, much so that I tore it out and carried it in my wallet, waving it at people, and saying "Says Who?".
I have it here now and I am waving it at the screen in an agitated way. It is entitled "Night-owl children ruin body clocks" from the Sunday Times, and the first sentence reads "Children who are allowed to stay up past their bedtime watching television or playing on a computer are at risk of late-night sleeplessness for the rest of their lives". To me this is grade A bunkum, as despite the strictest bed-times enforced by my parents, a thin gruel of educational TV and definitely no computer games (not invented), today I inhabit a nether-world of late nights, living in a time zone that is somewhere about GMT - 2 ("Mid-Atlantic" according to Windows clock) or GMT - 3 ("Montevideo/Buenos Aires/Georgetown/Greenland").
I recall a moment during an interview many years ago with PWC Management Consulting, walking around the offices taking in the atmosphere. My escort said "We have hot-desking here, and starting time is 9-30am" (how civilised, I thought), "but if you don't get in by 7am then you don't get a desk" (ho ho, st&ff that for a game of soldiers, I thought)
Who are these mysterious people, "they" who dictate when we should sleep and wake? Who says what bedtime is and should be? In a world of the Internet, Digital TV and 24hour opening at Tesco who needs to have a set bedtime? Says Who? Nanny? Granny? the NHS? [see footnote]
Alvin Toffler put his finger on this point in "Future Shock" many years ago, when he commented on the transition from cock-crow, to factory whistle and school bell - training us all to live, work and sleep to a rhythm of coordinated factory production. Be a good little robot, and Thank Ford for the Brave New World. (OK, mixed literary allusions there, I know)
Well, ranting aside, I was pleased to see later in the week, another article in the same domain, but this one said Teenagers improve grades with a lie-in..... Unlike Matter and anti-Matter which annihilate themselves in a E=MC2 sort of way when they get mixed together, News and anti-News stories just sort of disappear with a slight "moo" and a whiff of fish.
And so to bed...
[footnote: the worrying aspect is that the article quotes the sort of statistics about insomnia, sleep-walking and sleep-related breathing problems that some intellectually challenged politician might seize on to force us all to go to bed at 8pm...for our own good]
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( 2.8 / 308 )
Being of a fairly rational turn of mind, I don't have much truck with
Numerology and similar horoscopological mumbo-jumbo, but I have, over
the years, observed that product development tends to have
difficulties around 7th major version of a piece of software, the
antithesis of the "lucky number 7". This is not
a rigorously tested rule (it could be 5 or 6 or 7 or 8), but
something more of an intuition with some empirical
basis: rule or not, if it comes to pass for Microsoft, it does
not bode well for Windows 7.
A more robust, analytical explanation is that these difficulties are some manifestation of James Utterback theories about dynamics of innovation; of product and process innovation and dominant designs...
... maybe mixed with a bit of boredom, laziness, hubris, and less rational, human things (lemma here)
Windows is moving from Vista (6), to version 7, and so maybe it already had its bad moment. However, it is difficult to see how much more development can go into the product as it is, at 28 years old, quite far down the right hand end of the innovation curve, beyond the flush of youth (worrying about its pension, and oooh, it is so chilly, let's turn the fire up, and what are we having for lunch, i've lost my teeth...)
Many of the other core information technologies we hold dear today are also really quite ancient: RDBMS, Word Processors, Spreadsheets, all dating from the 1970-80s. So what's new in the world, multi-touch, then, the much touted new technology for Win 7, who needs it on a desktop, I ask you?
There is a lot of talk of Cloud Computing and other exciting things, but apart from the fact that it is, in the main, new applications that will drive up usage, not base technologies, there is an interesting trend about where computing stuff actually happens, and more of it is likely to be happening in non-human places, and between consenting machines...
If these population estimates above are any way true, then only about 8% of connected devices are human-type information appliances, the other 92% are machine or devices that do things useful or mysterious - the balance is tilted to the machines by the 50 billion cockroaches in the basement; analogous to the rat statistic - you are never more than six feet from one, but you may not know it...
If you take this Machine-to-Machine (M2M) intelligent device view of the world and mash it up with the Semantic Web & RDF - creating machine readable data on the web, and maybe, as a by-product, defining the lingua franca so that machine can talk unto machine.
So, if the washing machine says, "I'll be back", get the h*ll out, Judgement Day is coming!
...well, not according to the entrails of this goat that I have been using to forecast the future of the global banking system, anyway...
A more robust, analytical explanation is that these difficulties are some manifestation of James Utterback theories about dynamics of innovation; of product and process innovation and dominant designs...
... maybe mixed with a bit of boredom, laziness, hubris, and less rational, human things (lemma here)
Windows is moving from Vista (6), to version 7, and so maybe it already had its bad moment. However, it is difficult to see how much more development can go into the product as it is, at 28 years old, quite far down the right hand end of the innovation curve, beyond the flush of youth (worrying about its pension, and oooh, it is so chilly, let's turn the fire up, and what are we having for lunch, i've lost my teeth...)
Exercise for the reader: try plotting where you think Windows 1.0, 3.1, 95, XP and Vista fit on the curve?
Many of the other core information technologies we hold dear today are also really quite ancient: RDBMS, Word Processors, Spreadsheets, all dating from the 1970-80s. So what's new in the world, multi-touch, then, the much touted new technology for Win 7, who needs it on a desktop, I ask you?
Don't get me going about Tom Cruise and Minority Report - although I do still keep half an eye on developments in data gloves...
There is a lot of talk of Cloud Computing and other exciting things, but apart from the fact that it is, in the main, new applications that will drive up usage, not base technologies, there is an interesting trend about where computing stuff actually happens, and more of it is likely to be happening in non-human places, and between consenting machines...
If these population estimates above are any way true, then only about 8% of connected devices are human-type information appliances, the other 92% are machine or devices that do things useful or mysterious - the balance is tilted to the machines by the 50 billion cockroaches in the basement; analogous to the rat statistic - you are never more than six feet from one, but you may not know it...
If you take this Machine-to-Machine (M2M) intelligent device view of the world and mash it up with the Semantic Web & RDF - creating machine readable data on the web, and maybe, as a by-product, defining the lingua franca so that machine can talk unto machine.
So, if the washing machine says, "I'll be back", get the h*ll out, Judgement Day is coming!
Tuesday, February 3, 2009, 11:38 PM - Timeout
Confusing as ever, over the last couple of days, the Lincolnshire Wolds handed out another helping of its quixotic and capricious micro-climate.Whilst the rest of Britain wears a white overcoat, the skies over the Wolds looked like this...
...and the ground looked like this...
...ok, a little bit of snow, and it was slippery down the (unsalted) hill to town. Indeed, the score on the journey out on Monday morning was:
- An oil lorry stuck in the mud/slush in the grass verge
- An articulated grain lorry that had slid to a halt up the hill - being rescued by local farmer and tractor
- one lady who had parked her car up the nice new Miss-Marple style finger posts
- a couple of dainty wiggles and balletic sideways moves from the 4x4
But we made it past the place where, a couple of weeks ago, I took a 180 degree flip into the mud and bushes (rear wheel drive that time), on the ice-sheet provided kindly by Anglian Water who have never fixed the leak from the hill-top reservoir, and past the useless grit bin at the top of the hill.
Isn't there some sense of completeness in the Cosmos, in the fact that Wikipedia has an entry on grit bins (with pictures). Although this article and similar might give suggest some organisations have a rather more proprietorial attitude to their bins than Wackipedia might suggest...
The keener-eyed amongst you may be wondering about the pile of junk in the foreground - a legacy of last summer holiday. Unlike the sun-worshippers and other more conventional holidaymakers, I set myself the task of making a Pond Cam, to observe the comings and goings at the pond (and prove that I still "cut it" on a down and dirty bit of systems integration and soldering). And here it is replete with wireless infra-red camera and solar panel...
Well it works (day and night), which was a good result, but not without its challenges, like the relatively short range of the wireless transmitter, so this coming year I might just take a few days off in the summer to IP-enable the pond to close down the distance. Well, it is already mains-powered, so why not a little bit of powerline Ethernet, an IP Web-cam and some video streaming...
A bit of context here: It's a wildlife pond so is intended to look a bit scruffy, with bits of old rotting tree stumps (no suburban goldfish here), and it does the job very well!
Roll on summer (or the promised, but as yet unseen 15cm of snow).
Life, media-style, is normally quiet in the nether regions of
Lincolnshire, but having had an earthquake last year, it seems
that the papers are thirsting for more excitements from the
Wolds. So we have started the year with an exciting story "Tentacled
Alien Destroys Wind Farm Generator", pictured below just
after the accident (a genuine photo, for sure)...
I have commented before about the impact of global warming, but I think having an ocean-going octopus visiting now is rather premature, and in fact any, extra-terrestrial cephalopods foolish enough to embrace a windmill is going to end up as sushi.
Of course, the alien story is a good way of diverting attention from the otherwise suffocating Credit Crunch
Bubbles are always predictable with 20:20 hindsight, and make a nonsense of some of the great prognostications and punditry, when all comes crashing to the ground. Arthur C. Clarke summed up the dangers of prophecy as Failure of Imagination, and Failure of Nerve. To which we could probably add Failure of Intelligence to make an unholy trinity. Intelligence comes in many forms of thinking process as well as keeping a good look-out. Previous major failures of forecasting include the dot.com bust, of the prior forecasts for commercial trends were spectacularly off:
... and which also makes me think that, in the terms of control systems theory, that the whole global commercial and financial system is large and complex enough not to observable, let alone controllable (although the jury is out as to whether it is quantum indeterminate).
Which brings me to one of the classic, but flawed frameworks that are often used in the crystal-ball gazing process: the PEST analysis which attempts to scan important trends in Political, Economic, Socio-Cultural and Technological domains. Variants posited include:
In the spirit of improvement, albeit strapping wings to a pig, I can offer my own variant: PESTO. The "O" stands for "Oh sh*t", that category of all other things that we didn't think about in the other four categories, or plain just aren't under the microscope, or even do not yet exist, be imagined or people don't think can happen, and so on.
The solutions to long term forecasting problems, is to think/work in short cycles, and react/respond quickly to keep up with the changes, and adapt to events as they arise. Be Agile!
I have commented before about the impact of global warming, but I think having an ocean-going octopus visiting now is rather premature, and in fact any, extra-terrestrial cephalopods foolish enough to embrace a windmill is going to end up as sushi.
Of course, the alien story is a good way of diverting attention from the otherwise suffocating Credit Crunch
I was going to write something clever about "interesting times" here but when looking up the origin of the phrase it turns out that the alleged curse has very little provenance - the quixotic and capricious Wikipedia suggest it might be related to the proverb "It's better to be a dog in a peaceful time than be a man in a chaotic period" (寧 為太平犬，不做亂 世人; pinyin: níng wéi tàipíng quǎn, bù zuò luànshì rén).
Bubbles are always predictable with 20:20 hindsight, and make a nonsense of some of the great prognostications and punditry, when all comes crashing to the ground. Arthur C. Clarke summed up the dangers of prophecy as Failure of Imagination, and Failure of Nerve. To which we could probably add Failure of Intelligence to make an unholy trinity. Intelligence comes in many forms of thinking process as well as keeping a good look-out. Previous major failures of forecasting include the dot.com bust, of the prior forecasts for commercial trends were spectacularly off:
... and which also makes me think that, in the terms of control systems theory, that the whole global commercial and financial system is large and complex enough not to observable, let alone controllable (although the jury is out as to whether it is quantum indeterminate).
Which brings me to one of the classic, but flawed frameworks that are often used in the crystal-ball gazing process: the PEST analysis which attempts to scan important trends in Political, Economic, Socio-Cultural and Technological domains. Variants posited include:
-
PESTLE/PESTEL - Political, Economic, Sociological, Technological, Legal, Environmental;
-
PESTLIED - Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal, International, Environmental, Demographic;
-
STEEPLE - Sociodemographic, Technological, Economic, Environmental, Political, Legal, Ethical;
-
SLEPT- Social, Legal, Economic, Political, Technological
- FARM: Feudal, Agricultural, Religious, Magical (for medieval lords, thanes and serfs, etc..)
In the spirit of improvement, albeit strapping wings to a pig, I can offer my own variant: PESTO. The "O" stands for "Oh sh*t", that category of all other things that we didn't think about in the other four categories, or plain just aren't under the microscope, or even do not yet exist, be imagined or people don't think can happen, and so on.
The Red Queen trumps Karl Marx - change is constant and things always move on, become different. Change is, not dialectical, sorry Karl, you backed the wrong horse.
The solutions to long term forecasting problems, is to think/work in short cycles, and react/respond quickly to keep up with the changes, and adapt to events as they arise. Be Agile!
Postscript: I cannot finish without acknowledging the death of my Uncle Edward in December, the last Gueritz of his generation, and remarkable with it. You can read his story here
I recently had to to go to Kent at short notice, and
since
I was heading into relatively unknown territory on a long journey, I
zero'd
my satnav trip details, a rare event.
When I got home, I flipped to the trip detail screen and was tickled to see this trip record shown below...
The distance looks right, but behold, my Max Speed was apparently 242 mph - was I driving a Bugatti Veyron (top speed 258 mph)? - I think not!
This makes you think about how useful is GPS data as the foundation of a national road pricing system - the answer is probably in chocolate teapot territory!
Many people think that a satellite based road pricing system would work roughly like this...
...with the satellites somehow detecting the position of your car and then transmitting the data to the Big Computer that adds up the price of the the roads you have been sitting on, and then issuing a bill.
But of course the satellites don't detect the position of the car at all, it is the Black Box in the car that does all the work, and so a GPS-satellite based road pricing system would really work something like this....
...with the car working out where it thinks it is, and then (somehow, by mobile phone, maybe) sending the data to the Big Computer that...well, you get the picture, don't you...
If such a system were built, then once people twig the way things work, the little Black Boxes will be wearing tin-foil hats - to block the incoming satellite signal, and then to stop the mobile phone signal going out; result: No road travel data = no payment.
So the Power-That-Be would have design some sort of method of enforcement. What better way than using the Automatic Number Plate Recognition (ANPR) cameras that are sprouting all over the place.
All you need to do is cross-relate the journey data received from the in-car black boxes with the location of sightings according to the cameras. The system would look something like this...
Thinking a bit harder than maybe my satnav did, then you can imagine many points of error:
Multiplying up the error probabilities in this ordure-filled pipeline, and you will get a success probability in the mid-seventies percent. Not good...
My trip would have earned me about 18-points on my licence, a big fine, a 5-year ban, and probably 6 months in chokey for apparently travelling at 182 mph faster than the National Speed limit.
So if/when we end up with a GPS-powered road pricing system, expect the worst!
When I got home, I flipped to the trip detail screen and was tickled to see this trip record shown below...
The distance looks right, but behold, my Max Speed was apparently 242 mph - was I driving a Bugatti Veyron (top speed 258 mph)? - I think not!
This makes you think about how useful is GPS data as the foundation of a national road pricing system - the answer is probably in chocolate teapot territory!
Many people think that a satellite based road pricing system would work roughly like this...
...with the satellites somehow detecting the position of your car and then transmitting the data to the Big Computer that adds up the price of the the roads you have been sitting on, and then issuing a bill.
But of course the satellites don't detect the position of the car at all, it is the Black Box in the car that does all the work, and so a GPS-satellite based road pricing system would really work something like this....
...with the car working out where it thinks it is, and then (somehow, by mobile phone, maybe) sending the data to the Big Computer that...well, you get the picture, don't you...
If such a system were built, then once people twig the way things work, the little Black Boxes will be wearing tin-foil hats - to block the incoming satellite signal, and then to stop the mobile phone signal going out; result: No road travel data = no payment.
So the Power-That-Be would have design some sort of method of enforcement. What better way than using the Automatic Number Plate Recognition (ANPR) cameras that are sprouting all over the place.
All you need to do is cross-relate the journey data received from the in-car black boxes with the location of sightings according to the cameras. The system would look something like this...
Thinking a bit harder than maybe my satnav did, then you can imagine many points of error:
- confused satnav systems
- lost distances travelled in tunnels, city canyons, and inside little tin foil hats
- black box failures, including maybe "failures" induced by sharp, stabbling screwdrivers
- failed/partial uploads of trip records
- misrecognised number plates
- cars and drivers missing from the database
- and more...
Multiplying up the error probabilities in this ordure-filled pipeline, and you will get a success probability in the mid-seventies percent. Not good...
I have previously mentioned the risk profile of Government IT projects so I won't bang that particular drum again here, but you can always look here to remind yourself...
My trip would have earned me about 18-points on my licence, a big fine, a 5-year ban, and probably 6 months in chokey for apparently travelling at 182 mph faster than the National Speed limit.
So if/when we end up with a GPS-powered road pricing system, expect the worst!
Footnote: the charming and naively executed diagrams in this post where brought to you courtesy of a DigiScribble pen. It calls itself " The Mobile Digital Note-Taker", but using it underlined for me the fatal flaw of all write-only devices...you can't see what it thinks you wrote until you upload - too late, way too late
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